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COMPANY RESEARCH | Results Preview
April 28, 2016
Vibhavadi Medical Center (VIBHA TB) Share Price: Bt2.90
Target Price: Bt3.2(+10%)
Ahead of the curve
Expect 1Q16 earnings to grow 24% yoy to Bt221m (-6% qoq) driven by higher patient volumes We raised FY16-FY18F earnings by 3-6% following higher-thanexpected revenues from Vibhavadi and CMR in 1Q16 OUTPERFORM, raised DCF-based TP to Bt3.2 (8.3% WACC, 3.0% LTG), implying 22x FY16F EV/EBITDA
Revised up 1Q16 earnings estimate Following an update from VIBHA on operations and 1Q16 results, we now expect revenue to come in at Bt1.5bn (+14%yoy, 7% qoq). Revenue from Vibhavadi Hospital should grow by 14% yoy, while Chiangmai Ram Medical (CMR) should see 16% growth led by a larger base of Social Security patients. Further, the share of profits from Vibharam will turn positive due to improving performance at Vibharam Amata driven by 30k new registered SS members (50k quota). Group EBITDA margin should increase by 20 bps to 28.6%. Overall, we estimate VIBHA would book Bt221m earnings in 1Q16 (+24% yoy). Revised up Vibhavadi and CMR revenues We revised up FY16-FY18F earnings by 3-6% (see p2) after reflecting better-than-expected performance at Vibhavadi and CMR in 1Q16. Vibhavadi Hospital has started to capture the benefits of its specialist center. Lanna Hospital (which contribute 37% of CMR’s revenue) has started to see contribution from the new 60-bed facility which opened last September; revenue is expected to grow 20% in 1Q16. However, we will keep our forecast for Vibharam Group as Vibharam Samutsakorn which opened in March will be loss-making for least two years.
Krungsri Securities Research Team Naphat CHANTARASEREKUL 662 - 659 7000 ext 5000 [email protected]
Teerapol UDOMVEJ Assistant analyst
Key Data 12-mth high/low (Bt) Market capital (Btm/US$m) 3m avg. turnover (Btm/US$m) Free float (%) Issued shares (m shares) Major shareholders: -VIRIYAMETAKUL CHAIYA -F&S 79 CO LTD -SINPHATE CO LTD
Deserves premium valuation for strong EBITDA margins We lifted TP to Bt3.2/sh after revising up assumptions. VIBHA is now trading at 20x FY16F EV/EBITDA, in line with regional peers. Our TP may seem high but is justified because VIBHA offers strong 19% earnings CAGR over FY15-FY18F and 28% EBITDA margin, the second highest in the Healthcare sector. YTD
Financial Summary (Btm) Year to Dec Sales (Btm) Growth (%) EBITDA (Btm) Growth (%) Recurring profit(Btm) Growth (%) Net profit (Btm) FDEPS (Bt) Growth (%) PE (x) DPS (Bt) Yield (%) BVPS (Bt) P/BV (x)
Disclaimer: This publication constitutes information disclosed to the public and believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. All opinions, suggestions, or projections are for informational purposes only and shall not be construed as an inducement for the sale or purchase of securities. Amendments to this publication may be made without prior notice. Investors are urged to exercise caution in making a decision to invest in any securities.
Results Preview | VIBHA INCOME STATEMENT (Btm) Turnover Cost of sales (COGS) Depreciation & amortization Gross profit S&A expense Operating profit Other operating income EBIT Interest expense Interest income Other income Goodwill amortization Pre-tax profit Income tax on company & subsidiaries Profit after tax Minority interests Share of associate net income Preferred dividends Recurring attributable net profit Extraordinary items Reported net profit
Shares in issue (Y/E, m) Shares in issue (weighted avg. m) EPS (before extraordinary items, Bt) DPS (Bt) DPS/EPS (%)
12,577 12,577 0.05 0.03 63
12,608 12,608 0.06 0.00 5
12,633 12,633 0.07 0.04 60
12,683 12,683 0.08 0.05 60
12,883 12,883 0.10 0.06 60
CASH FLOW (Btm) Operating profit Other operating income EBIT Depreciation & amortisation EBITDA Notional cash taxes on ungeared operations Net change in working capital CAPEX Operating free cashflow (OpFCF) Net interest income adjusted for tax impact Net free cashflow (NetFCF) Non-operating income (net of tax) Equity income from associates Investments Net change in other assets/liabilities Other items Residual cashflow (RCF)
Dividends Equity capital raised Other items Cashflow from financing Net change in cash Net cash/(debt) at YS Ending net cash /(debt) Increase/(decrease) in cash & equivalents (Increase)/decrease in debt NOPLAT (net op profit less adjusted tax) Normalised OpFCF (est maint CAPEX) FCFE (free cashflow to equity)
Krungsri Securities Research
April 28, 2016
Results Preview | VIBHA BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash & equivalents A/C receivable Inventory Others Total Current Assets Property and equipment Investments & associates Other assets Goodwill Total Assets
ENTERPRISE VALUATIONS (Btm) Ordinary shares (m) Share price (Bt) Ordinary equity MV MI & deferred taxes Equity MV (adjusted ord) Preferred equity Debt Enterprise Value Net noncore assets Core Enterprise Value (EV)
RISK MEASURES Equity multiplier (avg. total assets/avg. equity) Net debt/equity & MI Interest cover (x) Interest cover (EBIT & int.incl/int. expense) NOPLAT/interest paid Debt service (OpFCF/net interest paid) Short-Term Ratios (x) Current assets/current liabilities Current assets less inventory/current liabilities A/C receivable, days turnover Inventory, days COGS A/C payable, days COGS
Krungsri Securities Research
Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies 2014 Thai Institute of Director (IOD)
BAFS KBANK SAT
BCP BTS CPN EGCO GRAMMY HANA INTUCH IRPC IVL KKP KTB MINT PSL PTT PTTEP PTTGC SAMART SAMTEL SC SCB SE-ED SIM SPALI TISCO TMB TOP To recognize well performers, the list of companies attaining "Good", "Very Good" and "Excellent" levels of recognition without regulatory notation (from January 1, 2013 to October 22, 2014) is publicized.
AKR ASIA BWG CSP GENCO IHL LRH MJD NYT PREB SCCC SMPC SUC THANA TNDT UMI WIN
AMANAH AYUD CCET CSS GL INET LST MODERN OGC PRG SCG SMT SWC THIP TPC UP WINNER
AMARIN BEAUTY CGD DCC GLOBAL IRC MAJOR MONO OISHI PRIN SEAFCO SOLAR SYMC THREL TPCORP UPF YUASA
Score Range 90-100 80-89 70-79 60-69 50-59 Below 50
Number of Logos
No logo given
Description Excellent Very Good Good Satisfactory Pass N/A
Disclaimer The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, and the Market of Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information. The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that date. Krungsri Securities Public Company Limited does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
Definition of Ratings OUTPERFORM NEUTRAL UNDERPERFORM
- Stocks with an expected capital gain above 10% in the next 12 months for small-caps, above 5% for big-caps - Stocks with an expected capital gain between -10% and +10% in the next 12 months for small-caps, -5% to +5% for big-caps - Stocks with an expected capital gain below 10% in the next 12 months for small-caps, below 5% for big-caps