WEEKLY REPORT  CHILEAN EQUITIES October 11th, 2016
CHILEAN EQUITY DASHBOARD Week ended on October 7th
Last week, the shortselling stock position on the Santiago stock exchange showed a 36% increase WoW at CLP 33,899Mn. In particular, we observed relevant (over CLP 500Mn) increases in Entel, EnersisAM, CMPC and Copec. The Margin trading stock showed a 1.4% WoW increase at CLP 283,771Mn. In particular, we observed relevant (over CLP 500Mn) increases in plenty of companies such as Parauco, SQMB, SMChile, Ripley, Sonda, LAN and CMPC. Moreover, the largest relevant decreases were EnersisAM, Entel, CAP, Cencosud and EndesaAM. Regarding last week net insider movements, we highlight: (i) net investments in Carozzi carried out by “Principado de Asturias S.A” (controlling shareholder) and (ii) net divestments in Salfacorp executed by “Inversiones San Agustin S.A” (Management) and by “Inversiones Matriz S.A” (controlling shareholder). Last week we did not observed movements of Chilean ETF quotes, while accruing +29.9% YTD.
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Short Selling and Margin Trading weekly trend (CLP Mn)
350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000
Jacinta Correa +562 26923486
[email protected]
150,000 100,000
0 Jan/10 Apr/10 Jul/10 Oct/10 Dec/10 Mar/11 Jun/11 Sep/11 Dec/11 Feb/12 May/12 Aug/12 Oct/12 Jan/13 Apr/13 Jul/13 Oct/13 Jan/14 Mar/14 Jun/14 Sep/14 Dec/14 Feb/15 May/15 Aug/15 Nov/15 Jan/16 Apr/16 Jul/16 Oct/16
CONTACT
50,000
Aldo Morales +562 26923481
[email protected]
Short Selling
@BICEinversiones 1
Source: Santiago stock exchange, BICE Inversiones.
Margin Trading
Largest
shortselling
2
Short Selling stock position (CLP Mn) Days of Trade
stock position measured by days of trade are Entel, Sonda and CAP.
Stock ENTEL SONDA CAP ENERSISAM CMPC AGUASA COPEC CENCOSUD FORUS ITAUCORP AESGENER COLBUN BSANTANDER ANDINAB ECL CHILE IAM VAPORES ENDESACH PARAUCO LAN CCU FALABELLA BCI TOTAL
3
9/Sep/16 487 1,600 2,121 2,400 414 2,016 1,824 8,048 370 116 238 109 4,219 351 56 1,365 1,698 29 132 366 705 586 1,084 586 31,405
16/Sep/16 612 1,888 2,056 2,820 728 1,929 1,854 6,724 390 446 243 211 1,542 382 95 1,387 1,705 29 228 374 708 485 1,097 837 29,485
23/Sep/16 412 1,773 2,156 3,656 864 2,009 1,394 5,748 359 406 226 321 1,420 386 112 1,134 403 29 304 161 343 487 333 992 25,693
30/Sep/16 439 1,825 2,215 3,783 1,977 2,076 1,505 5,394 371 598 217 308 966 303 153 673 242 57 334 216 336 169 393 194 24,929
7/Oct/16 3,415 1,922 2,540 5,741 2,554 2,510 2,293 5,598 440 1,070 331 370 1,341 352 242 648 116 27 540 303 361 172 432 309 33,899
2.9 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0
Margin Trading stock position (CLP Mn)
Largest margin trading positions are Parauco, SQMB and Colbun.
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Stock PARAUCO SQMB COLBUN ENERSISAM SMCHILE B RIPLEY SECURITY SONDA LAN CMPC CHILE COPEC ENTEL CAP FALABELLA CENCOSUD LAS CONDES CCU MULTIFOODS ECL ENDESAAM ANTARCHILE ORO BLANCO ENDESACH Total
2/Sep/16 38,721 17,110 32,940 18,432 13,205 8,432 7,914 7,742 4,329 6,749 5,442 2,481 5,437 4,964 2,737 8,632 3,400 2,040 2,640 2,030 4,655 2,483 2,072 2,897 267,030
9/Sep/16 38,743 32,862 31,835 18,173 13,731 9,216 7,914 5,338 4,194 5,133 5,457 3,065 5,744 5,846 2,520 4,095 3,454 1,989 2,664 2,062 4,751 2,868 2,185 2,859 276,686
Increase > CLP 500M Decrease > CLP 500M Source: Santiago stock exchange, BICE Inversiones.
16/Sep/16 36,840 33,327 31,843 18,090 13,754 8,544 10,174 5,247 4,802 5,340 5,072 4,552 5,871 5,009 4,443 4,582 3,456 2,815 2,723 2,795 4,470 2,842 2,411 3,895 283,671
23/Sep/16 36,872 33,305 31,791 18,094 13,873 8,475 8,175 4,794 4,733 4,750 5,275 4,498 5,346 5,219 3,773 3,533 3,376 2,962 2,723 2,931 4,481 2,842 2,206 2,828 274,403
30/Sep/16 37,167 34,159 31,775 17,617 13,903 8,719 8,208 5,836 4,789 5,107 5,147 4,393 4,218 5,912 4,228 5,893 3,378 2,656 3,037 3,056 3,426 2,842 2,020 2,053 279,881
7/Oct/16 38,268 34,246 31,758 17,520 14,904 9,094 8,193 6,966 6,740 6,239 5,278 4,555 4,183 4,126 3,880 3,454 3,378 3,155 3,149 3,029 2,882 2,829 2,503 2,433 283,771
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Net Insiders movements (CLP Mn)
Regarding last week net insider movements, we highlight: (i) net investments in Carozzi carried out by “Principado de Asturias S.A” (controlling shareholder) and (ii) net divestments in Salfacorp executed by “Inversiones San Agustin S.A” (Management) and by “Inversiones Matriz S.A” (controlling shareholder).
COMPANY CAROZZI S.A. INVERSIONES AGRICOLAS Y COMERCIALES S.A. S.A.C.I. FALABELLA MULTIEXPORT FOODS S.A. SCOTIABANK CHILE AGUAS ANDINAS S.A. INGEVEC S.A. MARBELLA COUNTRY CLUB S.A. SOCOVESA S.A. COMPAÑIA DE INVERSIONES LA ESPAÑOLA S.A. HORTIFRUT S.A. SALFACORP S.A.
1W 27 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36
2W 27 1 30 5 0 0 11 12 20 127 1,685 36
COMPANY EMPRESAS LA POLAR S.A. RIPLEY CORP S.A. DETROIT CHILE S.A. DUNCAN FOX S.A. SOCIEDAD PUNTA DEL COBRE S.A. S.A.C.I. FALABELLA SOCOVESA S.A. COMPAÑIA DE INVERSIONES LA ESPAÑOLA S.A. CENCOSUD S.A. CHILECTRA S.A. SALFACORP S.A. HORTIFRUT S.A.
1M 10,361 2,090 618 82 39 30 20 127 150 150 520 1,685
2M 10,361 2,090 618 82 39 18,192 44 127 150 150 2,819 1,685
Increase > CLP 500M Decrease > CLP 500M Source: Santiago stock exchange, BICE Inversiones.
Last week we did not observed movements of Chilean ETF quotes, while accruing +29.9% YTD.
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Creation/Destruction ETF quotes per country (% AUM)
Chile Brasil Colombia México Perú World EM Latam USA Europe Asia (ex Japan) Japan China Money Market Develop Gov. Inv. Grade High Yield EM Corp Debt Inf. Linked
AUM 318 4,175 89 1,054 202 5,288 31,842 964 196,852 2,349 3,060 14,187 3,955 3,608 8,623 32,652 17,955 4,131 294
Source: BICE Inversiones.
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5d 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.9% 2.0% 0.9% 4.0% 4.7% 0.0%
1m 3.4% 0.9% 1.1% 7.8% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 1.7% 0.0% 5.8% 0.1% 0.0% 6.3% 3.6% 2.1% 11.5% 7.2% 8.6%
3m 0.2% 1.2% 3.4% 6.6% 3.6% 9.7% 20.5% 15.3% 3.7% 8.9% 23.2% 5.0% 0.0% 6.0% 11.6% 3.3% 3.3% 17.3% 27.3%
6m 13.9% 1.3% 0.4% 15.0% 11.3% 8.4% 12.7% 14.7% 5.3% 11.4% 17.5% 16.1% 10.2% 0.9% 10.0% 9.6% 20.8% 23.0% 39.4%
YTD 29.9% 22.5% 14.4% 13.9% 14.5% 20.3% 28.1% 28.1% 2.4% 12.4% 7.5% 34.7% 38.3% 13.6% 1.5% 23.8% 14.3% 35.9% 48.2%
1Y 28.6% 32.5% 21.4% 10.4% 8.8% 19.7% 30.7% 50.1% 5.5% 10.4% 8.5% 34.1% 41.8% 16.6% 15.2% 30.5% 25.7% 42.8% 42.7%
2015 6.5% 13.7% 23.2% 26.1% 20.3% 31.1% 19.3% 7.2% 13.7% 11.6% 6.6% 8.1% 10.8% 13.0% 42.7% 12.9% 1.4% 19.2% 96.1%
2014 4.3% 7.3% 3.4% 1.3% 15.1% 22.1% 14.2% 42.9% 9.5% 34.7% 20.6% 50.4% 7.4% 2.3% 7.1% 47.2% 5.9% 38.5% 5.3%
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Appendix 2. Valuation & Recommendation Price
16E T.P.
Target Price
Andina
2.583
2.535
NEUTRAL
CCU
6.700
8.350
NEUTRAL
Consumer Staples
Mkt. Cap (MMUS$)
% IPSA
ADTV (MMUS$)
2015
9.581 3.487
6,2%
6,1
9,6x
9,4x
1,4%
1,0
8,2x
8,9x
3.698
3,0%
3,2
11,3x
9,6x
EV/EBITDA 2016E 2017E
2015
P/E 2016E
2017E
8,7x
21,4x
19,9x
18,4x
8,0x
21,8x
23,5x
21,2x
8,8x
24,0x
19,0x
18,1x
Concha y Toro
1.174
1.378
BUY
1.310
1,3%
1,5
11,2x
9,9x
9,9x
15,9x
14,2x
13,1x
EmbonorB
1.565
1.625
BUY
1.086
0,4%
0,4
7,5x
9,6x
9,0x
18,6x
23,4x
20,7x
26.678
20,5%
14,2
1,6x
6,4x
6,1x
14,2x
9,3x
10,7x
110
130
BUY
8.056
5,5%
3,3

4,8x
4,6x
17,7x
8,8x
10,7x 10,9x
Electric Utilities Enersis Americas Enersis Chile
67
83
NEUTRAL
4.878
3,8%
3,3

7,6x
5,8x
0,0x
12,6x
Endesa Chile
450
648
BUY
5.513
5,0%
2,7

7,2x
7,1x
32,7x
7,0x
9,9x
Endesa Americas
303
328
BUY
3.706
2,4%
1,5

5,9x
5,1x
0,0x
13,3x
8,9x
1.105
1.202
NEUTRAL
1.738
1,5%
1,9
7,2x
7,8x
9,7x
16,6x
6,1x
26,8x
222
310
NEUTRAL
2.788
2,3%
1,7
11,1x
9,6x
10,0x
15,2x
13,1x
10,8x
1.381
0,6%
0,0
7,1x
7,3x
6,6x
10,2x
11,9x
10,8x
860
950
NEUTRAL
1.381
0,6%
0,0
7,1x
7,3x
6,6x
10,2x
11,9x
10,8x
8.095
4,0%
6,9
10,0x
10,3x
10,2x
31,7x
26,8x
24,3x
ECL (1) AESGener (1) Industrial SK Commodities CAP
3.900
2.000
SELL
871
0,6%
2,8
5,4x
8,4x
10,6x
182x
122x
41x
Soquimich
18.351
12.250
NEUTRAL
7.225
3,4%
4,2
11,9x
11,0x
10,0x
30,1x
23,3x
20,4x
30.411
14,9%
33,1
13,9x
14,3x
12,3x
21,8x
19,0x
16,1x
Cencosud
1.960
2.000
BUY
8.321
5,5%
15,2
9,4x
10,4x
8,9x
17,3x
15,6x
13,2x
Falabella
4.930
5.080
BUY
17.926
6,2%
14,2
16,7x
16,3x
14,1x
22,2x
21,4x
17,9x
Parauco
Retail
1.504
1.613
BUY
1.999
2,1%
1,9
16,5x
19,6x
16,0x
15,3x
18,7x
17,1x
Ripley
409
377
NEUTRAL
1.183
0,8%
1,3
14,7x
15,8x
12,9x
12,4x
15,4x
13,3x
Forus
2.545
2.190
NEUTRAL
Sanitary AguasA IAM ILC
9,3x
13,3x
12,2x
13,7x
20,9x
19,7x
11,1x
12,2x
12,1x
16,7x
18,2x
17,3x 17,3x
412
BUY
3.669
2,8%
2,4
11,1x
12,2x
12,1x
16,7x
18,2x
1.098
BUY
1.748
1,2%
0,7






2.258
0,6%
0,7
9,9x
8,4x
9,3x
11,3x
4,0x
9,4x
7.650
8.785
BUY
1.143
0,6%
0,6



10,0x
2,5x
8,0x
747
955
NEUTRAL
1.116
0,0%
0,1
8,9x
7,9x
7,8x
12,8x
11,4x
11,4x
1.690
1,5%
1,3
8,7x
8,1x
7,2x
22,5x
18,6x
15,7x
1.299
1.461
BUY
Transportation LATAM
0,6 3,1
415
Telecom & IT Sonda
0,5% 4,0%
1.170
Healthcare Habitat
983 5.416
1.690
1,5%
1,3
8,7x
8,1x
7,2x
22,5x
18,6x
15,7x
5.396
5,4%
8,5
9,8x
9,6x
8,7x
23,1x
23,0x
21,3x
5.641
5.864
NEUTRAL
4.596
4,7%
8,2
10,0x
9,7x
8,8x

26,2x
23,9x
55
54
BUY
800
0,7%
0,3
7,2x
8,5x
8,4x
12,0x
13,6x
13,0x
34.589
16,9%
11,6



13,6x
14,3x
13,2x
Chile
74
75,9
NEUTRAL
10.831
3,6%
3,1



12,2x
12,7x
11,8x
SM ChileB
213
208
NEUTRAL
4.182
2,2%
0,6






BSantander
34,4
34,7
NEUTRAL
9.669
5,1%
3,7



13,3x
13,1x
12,1x
30.412
32.410
BUY
5.521
3,6%
2,0



9,0x
10,5x
9,8x
5,7
6,5
NEUTRAL
4.385
2,4%
2,2



8,7x
13,2x
8,3x
4.076
4.350
125.496
74,7%
85,6
8,2x
9,7x
9,1x
18,8x
14,0x
14,2x
SMSAAM Banks
BCI Itaucorp BI Sample Source: BICE Inversiones
4
SALES TEAM
RESEARCH TEAM
Felipe Figueroa E.
Agustín Álvarez M.
Jacinto Laso P.
Aldo Morales E.
Head of Research
[email protected]
Equity Sales and Trading
[email protected]
Head of Equity Research
[email protected]
Equity Sales and Trading
[email protected]
Sebastián Carvallo I.
Andrés De la Cerda G.
Equity Research Analyst
[email protected]
Fixed Income and Currency
[email protected]
Jacinta Correa A.
Equity Research Analyst
[email protected]
Sebastián Senzacqua B. Chief Economist
[email protected]
Juan Pablo Castillo C. Senior Strategy Analyst
[email protected]
Contact
Follow
Download
Visit
600 400 4000
@BICEInversiones
App BICE Inversiones
biceinversiones.cl
5
This report has been prepared solely for the purpose of providing information to customers of BICE Inversiones Corredores de Bolsa S.A. This report is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell stocks, bonds or other instruments mentioned in it. This information and where it is based has been obtained from public information sources on our best knowledge and that according to our belief seems reliable. However, this does not guarantee that they are accurate or complete. The forecasts and estimates presented in this report have been prepared with the best information and tools available, but this does not guarantee that they will be fulfilled. All opinions and expressions contained in this report may be modified at any time without notice. BICE Inversiones Corredores de Bolsa S.A. and any company or person related to it and its controlling shareholders may at any time have short and long term investments in any of the instruments mentioned in this report or related with companies or markets mentioned and can buy or sell those same instruments. BICE Inversiones Corredores de Bolsa S.A. could eventually recommend purchases and / or sales of shares for trading positions. Such actions could be incorporated into other recommended portfolios. The projections and estimates presented in this report should not be the sole basis for the adoption of an appropriate investment decision and each investor must make its own assessment based on their personal situation, investment strategy, risk tolerance, tax situation, etc. The result of any financial transaction carried out with the support of this report is the sole responsibility of the person who performs it. Foreign securities and issuers that can be referenced in this report, and are not currently registered in the Securities Registry by the Chilean Superintendence of Securities and Insurance, are not applicable laws and regulations governing domestic stock market, therefore is the sole responsibility of investors to get their own information regarding such securities and foreign issuers before making any investment decision. The frequency of the publication of the reports, if any, is at the discretion of BICE Inversiones Corredores de Bolsa S.A. It is not allowed to quote or reproduce in whole or in part this report without the express permission of BICE Inversiones Corredores de Bolsa S.A. At the date of publication of this report, none of the members of the Research Department holds, directly or indirectly, investments in the issuer or issuers analyzed in it. At the date of publication of this report, none of the members of the Research Department holds, directly or indirectly, links to the issuer analyzed in it. The members of the Research Department expressly declare that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. BICE Inversiones Corredores de Bolsa S.A. and members of the Research Department expressly declare that there is no commercial relationship with the issuer analyzed in this report. BICE Inversiones Corredores de Bolsa S.A. and / or any company or person associated with it, may at any time have a position in any of the financial instruments mentioned in these reports and may buy or sell those same instruments, in which case they should be guided by the “Manual for share transactions and other securities by staff and BICECORP SA and its subsidiaries” and is available in www.biceinversiones.cl. At the date of publication of this report, the analyst _________________ holds, directly or indirectly, investments in the issuer _________________or issuers analyzed in it. At the date of publication of this report, the analyst Mr._________________ holds, directly or indirectly, with related links to the issuer analyzed in it. BICE Inversiones S.A. Corredores de Bolsa states that currently maintains a business relationship with the issuer _________________ analyzed in this report. Mr. _________________ analyst states that currently maintains a business relationship with the issuer analyzed in this report.
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